Republicans have been dealt another blow as data compiled from the Cook Political Report shows 14 U.S. House seats in 10 states currently held by Republicans are shifting toward Democrats 18 days before the November 3 midterm elections. Republicans are fighting to defend their razor-thin majorities in both chambers of Congress as voters weigh concerns about the economy, inflation, President Donald Trump's job performance and the ongoing U.S. war with Iran.
The GOP currently holds a 218-214 edge in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate, leaving little room for losses in a midterm cycle that features a number of highly competitive races. Democrats have an opportunity to flip one or both chambers, including in several states that have traditionally leaned Republican. "Republicans remain laser-focused on winning, protecting and expanding President Trump’s House majority," Republican National Committee Press Secretary Natalie Baldassarre told Newsweek.
"While Democrats celebrate political ratings, we’re thinking outside the box and pouring resources into battleground districts to highlight President Trump’s historic achievements, boost our candidates and defy history on November 3.” Newsweek reached out to the Democratic National Committee by email and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by phone for comment on Friday. On Friday, a Cook Political Report said that 11 House races are shifting toward Democrats, including five seats in four states held by Republicans. Of the five, all are still considered "lean R," according to Cook, but the move indicates that the results could be tighter than originally thought.
Similarly, a report on October 9 showed nine House seats currently held by Republicans shifting toward Democrats, including traditionally Republican states that Trump won big in 2024. Despite the changes, several of the impacted states are still favored to have a Republican win. Minnesota's First Congressional District, represented by Republican Brad Finstad, has shifted from "likely R" to "lean R." Finstad is facing Democrat Jake Johnson, with some polls showing the candidates tied.
Trump won Finstad's district by 12 points in 2024. Ohio has two House seats occupied by Republicans—Mike Turner in the 10th District and Mike Carey in the 15th—that shifted from "likely R" to "lean R" this week. Turner is running against Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker, while Carey is up against Democrat Don Leonard.
Trump won Ohio by nearly 12 points in 2024. When it comes to the Senate, the race between Republican Senator Jon Husted and Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown is among a handful of toss-ups that could determine the balance of power. Kansas' 2nd Congressional District, represented by Republican Derek Schmidt, shifted from "solid R" to "likely R." The Democratic candidate is Don Coover.
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