Tropical weather could pose a threat to parts of the country around Labor Day weekend, with forecasters watching the waters near Florida, the Bahamas and the Gulf for possible storm development. Atlantic tropical activity often rises as the hurricane season approaches its early September climatological peak. A relatively quiet season does not prevent an individual storm from producing dangerous rain, wind or coastal conditions.
Forecasters are monitoring Dolly’s remnants and two potential development zones near the Bahamas, Florida and the Gulf ahead of Labor Day weekend. Atmospheric conditions may become more supportive of strengthening next week when millions of people could be traveling for the holiday or spending time along the coast. Those living or traveling to Florida or the Gulf Coast may need to follow updated forecasts if an organized system emerges.
Dolly is expected to encounter hostile conditions while moving west across the northern Caribbean this weekend and into early next week. Development could become more likely if the system survives that stretch. DaSilva said lower wind shear is forecast north of Cuba, around the Bahamas and near the Florida Straits during the middle to latter part of next week.
Where the disturbance goes would then depend heavily on steering winds. One possibility is that a dip in the jet stream carries the system away from the mainland and into the western North Atlantic. A second scenario would allow the Bermuda high, a large area of high pressure over the western Atlantic, to push a reorganized Dolly or a new spinoff storm westward.
Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather’s chief on-air meteorologist, described that outcome as “somewhat more likely.” Under that scenario, a system could approach Florida by the middle of the week or move into the Gulf later. Another disturbance might instead form independently near the trailing end of a front over the Gulf. Conditions there will be important.
DaSilva said wind shear is forecast to become “very low” over the Gulf in early September, adding that a tropical depression entering or forming in the region could strengthen quickly. That remains a forecast possibility, not a confirmed outcome. ET Saturday, the NHC said there were no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.
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