The feel-good story of the 2026 season, at least on a team level, is arguably the Chicago White Sox. You know, the team that was parked in No. 30 in these Power Rankings the last umpteen weeks of 2024 and was at or near the bottom for most of 2025. They looked like a feisty bunch early this season and then started hanging around first place in June and July before building a lead as big as 5 ½ games in August.
That lead is now down to a half game, as the Sox just finished a 1-5 week against the Pirates and Cardinals. They still sit in first place, but it might not be for long. The Guardians don't exactly seem enthused at trying to win the division as they do more often than not these days, given that they only went 3-3 last week, but it's been enough to thrust them up right in the White Sox's rearview mirror so aggressively that it is fogging up.
The Guardians host the White Sox for a three-game series starting on Monday. So far this season, the White Sox lead the season series, 6-4, so they'll retain the tiebreaker as long as they avoid a sweep in Cleveland. If the Guardians win two of three, however, they'll overtake the White Sox for first place in the division.
The White Sox haven't been anywhere but first since a July 3 loss to the Guardians. After that one, the White Sox's chances to win the AL Central, per FanGraphs, were just 21.7%. They climbed all the way up to 80.0% through Aug. 28, but things have plummeted back down.
Today, it's a virtual toss-up. The Guardians, meanwhile, were as high as 72.6% (June 2), but saw their chances fall as low as 12.7% (Aug. 18). Now, the division is right there for the taking.
They just need to take care of business in a home series and then hold onto the lead after that. The White Sox responded to that aforementioned loss in early July by winning two games in Cleveland and haven't lost hold of that top spot since. Will things change this week?
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