Election forecaster Nate Silver has outlined which competitive Senate race is most likely to determine which party gains control of the chamber in November’s midterm elections. The Silver Bulletin’s 2026 election forecast, known as FLIPR, gives Democrats a 56.8 percent chance of winning control of the Senate as of August 24, while Republicans have a 43.2 percent chance. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate.
The forecast indicates the Texas Senate race is the most likely race to be the one that decides control of the Senate, with a 13 percent chance of being the “tipping point.” The contest between Democratic state Representative James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general, is one of the most closely watched this cycle and has given Democrats their best chance in years of winning a statewide race in reliably red Texas. Silver’s forecast says the race “leans Democrat,” giving Talarico a win probability of 60.7 percent. According to Silver’s model, the Senate race in Ohio is the second most likely—with a 12 percent—to decide control of the chamber.
There, Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown is hoping to unseat Republican incumbent Jon Husted. Silver’s model also suggests competitive contests in Maine, Michigan and Iowa could become tipping-point races if the fight for control of the Senate remains close in November. The Senate race in Maine has been given an 11 percent chance of deciding control of the chamber.
There, former state lawmaker and logger Troy Jackson will face longtime Republican Senator Susan Collins. That race was upended in recent weeks, with Jackson replacing Graham Platner as the Democratic nominee after Platner withdrew from the race in July following an allegation of sexual assault that he denied. Senate races in Michigan, where progressive Abdul El-Sated will face Republican former congressman Mike Rogers, and Iowa, where Democratic state Representative Josh Turek is facing Republican U.S.
Representative Ashley Hinson, have also both been given an 11 percent of deciding control of the Senate. Experts note the difficulty of pinpointing which race could ultimately decide control of the Senate. Paxton losing in Texas “would portend a Republican bloodbath nationally on election night,” Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek.
"Talarico is a very high quality candidate, and has weathered some of the harshest criticisms relatively well, but in the end, I think enough Republican and independent voters will be motivated to turn out and to come home, given some of the policies that Talarico espouses. Enough of them will hold their noses and vote for Paxton.”
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