Large parts of the United States are likely to experience a warmer-than-normal fall this year, according to newly released federal forecasts, while wetter conditions are favored in parts of the Southwest and Southeast. The latest outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center covers the September-through-November period and points to elevated odds of above-average temperatures across most of the country as meteorological fall gets underway. The forecast arrives as a strengthening El Niño continues to develop in the tropical Pacific, with forecasters saying there is a greater than 90 percent chance the climate pattern becomes a "very strong" event during the fall and winter months.
The agency's seasonal temperature outlook shows increased chances of above-normal temperatures across much of the contiguous United States. The strongest signal appears across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, where the probability of above-average temperatures is highest. Above-normal temperatures are also favored across much of the West, Great Plains, Gulf Coast, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
A broad area stretching from parts of the central Mississippi Valley into portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-South is marked as having "equal chances," meaning forecasters do not see a strong tilt toward either above-, below- or near-normal temperatures during the three-month period. Notably, the map does not show any area of the Lower 48 where below-normal temperatures are favored this fall. Alaska is also expected to trend warmer than average, particularly in southern portions of the state.
While the temperature outlook is dominated by warm colors, the precipitation forecast is less uniform. The highest odds of wetter-than-normal conditions are focused on parts of the Southwest, including Arizona, New Mexico and nearby areas of the Four Corners region. Another area tilted toward above-average rainfall stretches across parts of the Southeast, including portions of Georgia and the Carolinas.
Meanwhile, drier-than-normal conditions are favored in parts of the Pacific Northwest and around portions of the Great Lakes region. Large sections of the central United States fall into the Climate Prediction Center's "equal chances" category, reflecting a lack of a strong signal toward either wet or dry conditions. The outlook maps do not predict exact rainfall totals or temperature readings.
Instead, they show where forecasters believe above, below or near-normal conditions are most likely over the three-month period. El Niño can reshape weather patterns across large parts of the United States, though effects vary by region and season. Historically, El Niño winters have been associated with wetter conditions across parts of the southern United States, including California and Gulf Coast states, while some northern regions can experience milder-than-average temperatures.
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