This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: In 1967, a solar storm nearly triggered World War III by jamming early-warning radar systems in the United States, causing U.S. leaders to think the Soviet Union was responsible. Though society averted catastrophe thanks to timely information from solar forecasters, the threat from space weather remains real.
Solar, or geomagnetic, storms form as the sun expels plasma and magnetic fields from its corona during coronal mass ejections. After traversing space and encountering Earth's magnetic field, the energy can interact with conducting materials such as the crust or ocean and induce geoelectric fields. The currents destabilize electrical transmission as they flow through extrahigh-voltage transformers that regulate voltage in the grid.
Yet despite their potential for havoc, geomagnetic storms are an underquantified threat. Existing socioeconomic assessments of space weather are often siloed by discipline and overlook the relationship between geophysical drivers and the function of the power grid. To comprehensively assess the threat from space weather, Oughton and team developed a novel framework to estimate the economic consequences of a 1-in-250-year (250-year, in short) geomagnetic storm in the United States.
The model combines physics, engineering and economics to characterize hazards, vulnerability in the power grid and potential socioeconomic consequences under varying storm severities. The paper is published in the journal AGU Advances. To validate the model, the authors compared simulated effects at electric substations with measurements taken by the Tennessee Valley Authority during the 2024 Gannon storm.
During a 100-year geomagnetic storm, 3.5 million people and 91,000 businesses are predicted to lose power, with daily economic losses of $1.22 billion. A 250-year storm, the most intense storm evaluated, would affect up to 5 million Americans and more than 135,000 businesses. Such an extreme storm would cause direct losses of roughly $980 million per day and total losses of $1.81 billion per day.
The study provides a rigorous assessment of the socioeconomic hazard posed by space weather and offers direction for investment in the power grid to safeguard against future storms. The authors note that future research should examine cascading power grid dynamics and multihazard interactions, for example, if a geomagnetic storm hit during a heat wave or hurricane. Oughton et al, Major Space Weather Risks Identified via Coupled Physics‐Engineering‐Economic Modeling, AGU Advances (2026).
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