New Zealand’s two largest parties lost support in a key opinion poll, leaving the election in less than six weeks finely balanced. The governing National Party fell to 28%, which is its lowest level of support since 2021, according to the 1News Verian poll published late Monday. The main opposition Labour Party also dropped to 28% — its worst since early 2024.
The result heaps further pressure on Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, who is seeking a second term at the Nov. 7 vote but has been hampered by a sluggish economy and cost-of-living pressures that have hit household incomes. At the same time, Labour has failed to persuade people that it offers a compelling alternative, with support instead flowing to smaller parties. New Zealand has a proportional representation electoral system, and the National Party governs in a coalition with the New Zealand First Party and the ACT Party.
Backing for NZ First rose to 9% while ACT improved to 11%, the poll showed. Still, that means the existing center-right coalition wouldn’t control a majority of parliament. The big gainer in the poll was the Green Party, which surged 4 points to a record 16% support.
That potentially gives the Labour-led bloc a pathway to power if it links with the Opportunity Party, which was at 6% in the poll. Opportunity has never entered parliament, having failed to reach the 5% threshold at previous elections. However, several recent polls have put it above that level, raising the prospect that it may play a role in determining the next government.
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