No favorite appears to be safe these days in the NFL, as underdogs have come on strong over the first month of the regular season. In the past two weeks, a total of 23 games have been decided by one score, which is tied for the most in a two-week span in NFL history. Naturally, those coin-flip games have produced quite a bit of upsets, and we've largely been on the scent with them.
In last week's upset alert, we accurately identified the Texans, Lions, and Saints as favorites ripe to fall short, with the Cowboys, Panthers, and Falcons each pulling off upsets. Now, we turn our focus to Week 5, where there are several home underdogs, which always put our antenna up. Three of which you can find below, as they could stun the road favorites this weekend, along with two AFC East favorites possibly on shaky ground at home.
All NFL odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. New England is coming off its biggest win of the season after going up to Buffalo and upsetting the Bills to get to 2-2 on the year. After it felt like the sky was falling in Foxborough, that win -- at least for the moment -- stabilized things.
That said, this does feel like a possible letdown spot for the Patriots after such a monumental victory. They host a Raiders team that saw its undefeated 3-0 start get snapped by the Kansas City Chiefs last week, but Las Vegas largely hung in there. The defeat didn't expose them as fool's gold.
Rather, I expect them to go into Gillette Stadium and make the Patriots sweat. Vegas ranks sixth in the NFL in pressure rate (42.5%) and fifth in sack rate (8.7%). Drake Maye was much improved against Buffalo's pressure last week, but he's still struggled overall when under duress and has had a propensity to turn the ball over.
If that rears its head here, Kirk Cousins -- who is tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns (11) -- should be able to take advantage. I don't think it's hyperbole to call this a make-or-break game for Green Bay. A loss at home to Chicago would drop them to 2-3 on the season and, more importantly for tiebreaker situations, 0-2 in the NFC North.
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