Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE, XETRA:NKE) shares fell 4.3% Monday to their lowest level since September 2014, extending a decline that has now wiped out more than $200 billion in market value since the stock's 2021 record high, a drop of 78%. Soft direct-to-consumer sales and a fresh analyst downgrade weighed on the stock as it hovered near multi-year lows. Analysts project revenue will stay muted next quarter as the company continues working through a structural reset of its retail business.
UBS said secondary-market prices for Nike and Jordan footwear weakened year-over-year in July, citing new UBS Evidence Lab data. Nike brand shoe prices in the secondary sneaker market fell 2.9% y/y in July, the third straight month of decline and a roughly 120-basis-point deterioration from a 1.7% decrease in June. Jordan brand prices fell 2.8% y/y in July, an 480-basis-point deterioration from 2.0% growth in June.
UBS called the data "a modest negative" for Nike, noting the company still has considerable work ahead to restore sustainable sales growth and meaningful margin expansion, while the market continues to price in a solid turnaround. UBS said secondary-market data serves as a reasonably good proxy for brand momentum, and that Nike's stock is likely to improve once investors gain confidence the company's growth rate has bottomed and visibility emerges into a return to sustainably positive growth. July's data did not show that inflection, the bank said, as Nike's decline deepened and Jordan moved back into negative territory.
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