Nottingham Forest and Schalke are yet to score at home in 2026-27. The former are one of only five teams in the history of the English top flight to have failed to score in their first four home league matches. Three of the preceding four also drew a blank in game five, which will be deflating news for Oliver Glasner with Manchester City heading to the City Ground on Saturday looking for a win after consecutive league defeats.
Forest’s expected goals total implies they should have scored but a flaw in their data shows a reason why. They also failed to find the net in a Carabao Cup home game with Leeds, meaning they have amassed 70 shots in all competitions without giving the home fans a goal to celebrate. As extreme as this situation has become, Forest scored only two goals more than the lowest home scorers in the Premier League last season (Burnley), drawing a blank on nine occasions.
This is a longstanding issue. The dishonour of scoring the fewest home goals in Europe’s big five leagues in modern times belongs to Dijon, who bagged eight in 19 Ligue 1 games in 2020-21. Fulham went one goal better in the same season to claim the Premier League’s wooden spoon for home scoring.
Both scored three across their first four games, showing the unlikely depths to which Forest’s attack has sunk at the City Ground. With expected goals a frequent element of post-match analysis, it can be easy to overlook that shots are independent of each other. One is not more likely to be converted when those that preceded it were missed, even though the team’s xG total ticks upward.
A side that produced one expected goal through 100 shots valued at 0.01 xG would be far from guaranteed to score. This reality lies at the heart of Forest’s home woes. Their 62 league shots have been worth 3.58 expected goals.
It may feel reasonable to assume they deserve three goals. But only two of the efforts were deemed by Opta to be big chances, only five more had a better than one-in-10 probability of being converted and more than two-thirds were valued at 0.06 xG or less. Only against Coventry did they muster at least one expected goal in total, needing 24 attempts to register 1.09 xG.
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