Early voting data from Ohio could be a stark warning for GOP candidate and incumbent Republican Senator Jon Husted. Husted faces a challenge from former Senator Sherrod Brown in a special election to finish the term for which Vice President JD Vance was elected in 2022. With the campaign season in its final weeks, a new CNN analysis shows that after the first few days of early voting, affiliated Democrats make up larger shares of pre-election voters than in the 2024 presidential election.
Even in Republican parts of the state. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms when the president is unpopular. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up for election in November, along with key gubernatorial races.
Democrats need 17 seats to win the Senate, while Republicans need 20. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House, 219 to 213, and need 218 seats to take control. The midterms could alter the course of Trump’s presidency and reshape how the administration proceeds with its legislative priorities if Republicans lose their majority in either chamber.
In 2024, by this time, Republicans led Democrats by 30 percentage points in counties that voted for President Donald Trump by 20 points or more, according to CNN, which cited data from the Ohio Secretary of State. Now, that gap has shrunk to only 5 points. In other counties, voters have also shifted.
Counties that voted most strongly for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 are now about 25 points more Democratic, CNN reports. The data could signal a positive environment for Democrats and a warning sign for the GOP, with the midterm elections now only weeks away. However, it is still early, and Ohio is only at about 11 percent of its total early voting turnout from 2022, per CNN.
Early voting does not predict voting outcomes or intentions, and you cannot extrapolate a candidate from early eagerness to head to the polls. Newsweek emailed the Brown and Husted campaigns for comment. Recent polls show a continued downward slide in Trump’s national approval, which has, in turn, fueled Democratic hopes of winning back voters.
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