Former Goldman and Carlyle strategist is cashing in on crude’s rally this year Jeff Currie is a big name in oil markets. He’s been on bullish on oil since the pandemic, a stance he doubled down on this year when the Iranian crisis kicked off. Now he’s telling investors it’s time to book profits on the trade in the short-term for two reasons: first it’s gone up a lot, and fast; second, escalation in Hormuz is mutually destructive for both parties.
The founder and chief executive officer of Real Macro, Currie was formerly the chief energy strategist at both Carlyle Group and Goldman Sachs.In an X post on Monday, Currie went to great lengths to explain how and why he differentiates between his short and long-term views on the oil trade. What 7% mortgage rates mean for the housing market Play video: What 7% mortgage rates mean for the housing market He reckons that while it’s an opportune moment to bank gains on what he calls “prompt oil” (the spot price or short-dated futures contracts) and refined products, he still thinks there is a “structural supercycle” intact that will keep energy prices elevated. Moreover, longer-term trades, or beneficiaries of high oil prices, like rigs, oil service companies, bypass capacity, power and storage solutions are still in an upswing.
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Currie made his main, overriding bull call in October of 2020, predicated on a trifecta of themes: deglobalization, electrification and monetary debasement (weaker fiat currencies enhanced the appeal of physical commodities). In his opinion, the Hormuz conflict didn’t start those trends, but rather accelerated them. Since he made his forecasts in autumn 2020, the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index compared with around 120% for both Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indexes.
Currie’s recommendation to cash in now is mainly because “escalation would be so catastrophic for food and supply chains that neither side will pursue it, while a lasting deal is equally elusive.” Brent’s 75% rally so far in 2026 is sufficient reward for Currie. He predicts a situation going forward he characterizes as “Schrödinger’s Strait,” whereby the chokepoint in the Iranian gulf is theoretically open but in practice, still closed. The way to trade the uncertain future, Currie argues, is to exploit the rebuilding of stockpiles, the drive for energy security and resilience on behalf of many countries.
This suggests investing in oil infrastructure and logistics plays rather than oil itself. Currie’s sense of timing was pretty acute. As Deutsche Bank chief economist Jim Reid pointed out in his “Early Morning Reid” daily market bulletin Tuesday, some of Monday’s massive slump in oil was owing to a contract rollover, but nonetheless, “if you simply take the new active January contract for consistency, Brent crude still fell 7.63%”.
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