Only one Republican actually wants Trump’s midterm convention. And he’s the one who needs it the most

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump and Republicans will descend upon Dallas, Texas for the Republican midterm election convention. That’s right, midterm convention — it’s OK, that’s a phrasing that naturally draws a double take. Some Republicans, like Senate Majority Leader John Thune and many Republicans fighting for their paychecks in battleground districts will avoid the confab as Trump and Mike Johnson try to make the case to voters for keeping them in the majority.

But one Republican is thrilled Trump chose to hold this two-day rally and to do so in Texas: the state’s ultra-MAGA Attorney General Ken Paxton. Ever since Paxton beat Sen. John Cornyn, thanks, in large part, to Trump endorsing him over the veteran incumbent, Paxton has trailed Democratic nominee James Talarico.

Trump has sought to fix this problem, opening his massive war chest at MAGA Inc. to throw $10 million of ads to support Paxton. Elon Musk’s America PAC also poured in resources last week. But a look at past election results and where Paxton is the most vulnerable is clear: Trump and Paxton need to pump up his numbers the most in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and stop people from crossing over to support the Democrat — and that just so happens to be where this unprecedented midterm convention will be held.

While the city of Dallas is firmly Democratic, the big prizes for the GOP lie in the city’s suburbs. Particularly, Paxton and Talarico will need to duke it out in the three counties in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex: Tarrant, Collin and Denton Counties. Paxton himself is from McKinney, which is right in Collin County.

These counties are overwhelmingly white, with Denton and Tarrant both having more than 66 percent of its population being white and 59 percent of Collin being white. They are affluent due to the financial industry, with Wall Street hosting an extension in the region. All three have median household incomes higher than the national average, with Collin being the richest at $121,600 and Tarrant being the least wealthy at $84,207.

And about half the adult population in Collin and Denton have a college degree while 35 percent in Tarrant does. In 2004, former Texas Governor George W. Bush won a second term as president taking Collin by a whopping 43 percentage points, Tarrant by 25.4 points and Denton by 40.5 points.