A record El Niño climate phase will unleash unprecedented heat and extreme weather, and the UK food system is vulnerable, climate minister Katie White told New Scientist. At the same time, she pushed back against “panic and fear” after environment minister Angela Eagle told Britons they should “store a bit of food that can keep you going for a while” in case of El Niño storms and flooding. The collapse of the AMOC would be catastrophic.
How will we know when it’s coming? I’ve always got a few cans of beans, but that’s mainly so I’m ready for when I’ve not had a chance to go to the shop,” said White. While late winter in the UK has often been cold and dry during El Niño, the current event is so strong that it could remain warm and rainy into spring.
If fields become too muddy, tractors may not be able to sow crops like winter wheat, as happened in the 2023-24 El Niño, or the plants could fail to sprout. Continued wet weather could undermine spring barley. Farmers could be forced to spend more on livestock feed and housing, raising meat and dairy prices as well.
Closer to the tropics, crops like rice could fail due to heat, drought and weakened monsoons. A UK government report last week warned that El Niño could increase UK prices for imported foods such as rice, cocoa and coffee. This comes after heatwaves and drought linked to global warming reduced crop yields in the northern hemisphere this summer, resulting in the worst-ever wheat, barley, rape and oat harvest in the UK.
But the UK doesn’t keep substantial public food reserves. White argued that the UK would be better off helping local farms and groceries to become more resilient to climate shocks. A task force she established that includes military experts and scientists will meet in October to scrutinise readiness for climate security threats, including to food.
The UK also needs to reduce its reliance on imports for 40 per cent of its food. But “grain storage is definitely part of the answer” as well, she says. El Niño flooding could also threaten housing and infrastructure, and these risks will continue as climate change makes most of the world warmer and wetter.
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