Pakistan and Afghanistan right now are locked in a cycle of escalating tension. Repeated border clashes have strained ties between the two nations. The current round of tensions began in February 2026, when Pakistan launched strikes into Afghanistan targeting Taliban militants.
At one point in March, Pakistan's defense minister said the country was at "open war" with Afghanistan. Periodic bouts of violence have continued since then, with the latest Pakistani strikes targeting the Afghan Taliban's "terrorist hubs" reported earlier in October. At the heart of the dispute is Pakistan's accusation that the Taliban authorities in Kabul allow the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group, to target Pakistan from Afghan territory.
Kabul denies providing the group with sanctuary. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video As the two neighbors trade strikes, the escalating conflict "presents a significant diplomatic and strategic opportunity for India," Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, an Afghanistan expert and founder of the India-based Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies, told DW. D'Souza argues the confrontation has weakened Pakistan's traditional influence in Afghanistan and encouraged the Taliban to broaden its external relations.
"India can respond by expanding diplomatic engagement, humanitarian assistance, development projects and trade, while seeking assurances that Afghan territory will not be used by anti-India militant groups," she said. However, D'Souza cautioned against interpreting the opening as a fundamental realignment. "There is no ideological alignment between India and the Taliban," she said.
Afghanistan under Taliban rule is likely to pursue a diversified foreign policy rather than align exclusively with New Delhi. India also lacks the geographical advantages, economic leverage and security presence needed to replace Pakistan's influence, she notes. "The scenario of the Taliban becoming a strategic ally remains far-fetched." Former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan Amar Sinha warned against viewing the conflict simply as an opportunity for New Delhi to gain at Pakistan's expense.
"The issues have very little to do with India," Sinha told DW, arguing that India was not seeking strategic advantage from the fighting. He also pointed to the consequences of Pakistan's military actions for Afghan civilians. "Yet the rupture has made Kabul's search for alternative partners more pressing," he added.
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