Through the first two games of this year, Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young has completed 46 of 73 passes (63.0%) for 648 yards (8.9 per attempt), six touchdowns and one interception. The six passing touchdowns are tied for the league lead, and the 648 yards are second to only Tyler Shough. Young ranks sixth in the NFL in passer rating, seventh in ESPN's QBR and sixth in Pro Football Focus' passing grades.
He also checks in seventh in the league in per dropback, according to TruMedia, and seventh in completion percentage over expected, per NFL.com's Next Gen Stats. Those numbers are all a far cry from what we've seen from Young through the first three years of his career, when he showed occasional flashes but largely struggled. Because this performance looks like such an outlier compared with the rest of his career, it's worth asking how real it really is.
After digging into the film and watching all 80 of Young's dropbacks this season, I can say with a pretty high degree of confidence that the numbers reflect how well he's playing. For the most part, he is balling out there. Has he missed a few throws he should make?
He's still completing only 63% of his passes despite the hot start (partly because of a high tight-window throw rate -- more on that later), which is below average. And his off-target throw rate, per TruMedia, is 12.1%, which is actually a bit higher than last year (9.2%). Has he been helped by some fantastic wide receiver play from Tetairoa McMillan and especially Jalen Coker, who have made some incredible catches?
Those guys are playing at an extraordinarily high level to begin the season. They've been one of the best one-two punches in the league so far. Young has given them opportunities, and they've both made the most of them and hauled in some passes that could have been incomplete passes.
But Bryce has also thrown some absolute dimes, especially deep downfield -- he currently leads the NFL in deep ball completions (20-plus air yards). There's a reason his completion percentage over expected is so good at plus 8.0%. He's firing bullets into tight windows (his tight-window throw rate of 17.8% is eighth-highest out of 35 qualified quarterbacks at Next Gen Stats) and doing it with a high degree of confidence.
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