Aukus critic Paul Keating has said the submarine deal is locking Australia in to any future US conflict with China – “a war America would certainly lose” – and making Australia a target for retribution. The former prime minister seized on comments reported out of Washington this week from Republican congressman Michael McCaul – a China hawk and co-chair of the Congressional Friends of Australia caucus – who said “Australia is a target” for enemies of the US already. However, McCaul argued that greater integration with the US military would better protect Australia rather than leaving it more vulnerable.
McCaul also said it was “logical to assume” US nuclear-powered submarines rotating through Australian bases could also be nuclear armed after 2032, and that Australia’s participation in a US war against China over Taiwan was assumed by the US military establishment. It’s just obvious,” McCaul said. McCaul met with the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, the defence minister, Richard Marles, and the foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, during a visit to Australia this month.
Keating said the US would “certainly lose” in a war with China over Taiwan. More than half of the military installations in Australia have some level of US control or access. Intelligence sites such as Pine Gap play a critical role in US warfighting, downlinking masses of surveillance data from satellites, and providing targeting information for US strikes.
In parliament this week, Greens senator David Shoebridge seized on McCaul’s further comments that he considered Australia a “beachhead” for the US in its efforts to deter China and maintain peace in the region. It’s time we ended Aukus before we become the US’s beachhead.” Under Pillar One of the proposed Aukus agreement – a multi-decade deal slated to cost Australia $368bn to the mid-2050s – Australia will buy three “in-service” Virginia-class nuclear-powered, conventionally armed submarines from the US, beginning in 2032. From the early 2040s, Australia expects to deploy a new, larger Aukus-class submarine.
The new class will be designed in the UK and the first boat built for the Royal Navy. Australia will then build five Aukus submarines - except for their nuclear reactors - in South Australia. America’s Virginia class submarines do not currently carry nuclear weapons but, from 2032, the US navy is planning to equip some of its Virginia boats with nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missiles.
The regular rotation of US nuclear submarines through HMAS Stirling is also part of Aukus cooperation. The US has a policy of “strategic ambiguity” around the deployment of its nuclear arsenal, refusing to confirm or deny the presence of nuclear weapons on platforms around the world. The Treaty of Rarotonga prohibits Australia from “stationing” nuclear weapons on its territory.
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