Democratic hopeful and former Representative Mary Peltola is leading Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska's closely watched Senate race, according to a new AARP survey, adding to a growing body of polling showing the GOP in a competitive fight to retain the seat in a state President Donald Trump carried three times. The new poll, released Thursday, found Peltola, a Democrat, ahead of the Republican incumbent 46 percent to 41 percent in the initial round of voting. After the survey simulates Alaska's ranked choice voting process, Peltola's advantage grows to 53 percent to 47 percent.
The survey was conducted September 8 to September 11 among 800 likely voters by the bipartisan team of Republican firm Fabrizio Ward and Democratic firm Impact Research, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Trump carried Alaska by 13 points in 2024, 10 points in 2020 and 15 points in 2016, and the state's emergence as a Senate battleground comes as Republicans find themselves in tight races in traditionally red areas across the national map. Newsweek reached out to the Sullivan and Peltola campaigns for comment on Thursday.
A recent Alaska Survey Research poll found Peltola leading Sullivan by roughly one point in the final ranked-choice round, while a Data for Progress survey showed her ahead 53 percent to 47 percent. The main exception has been a June New York Times/Siena College poll that showed Sullivan holding a narrow two-point lead. Polling averages have generally reflected a tight race, with Peltola maintaining a small but persistent edge.
The polling trend has favored Peltola, but analysts caution against overconfidence. Joseph Warren, a political science professor at the University of Alaska Anchorage, previously told Newsweek that Alaska is one of the country's hardest states to poll because of its vast geography and diverse voter base. He also pointed to polling misses in Sullivan's 2020 reelection race as a reminder that Alaska surveys can be difficult to interpret.
Peltola is an unusually strong Democratic candidate in Alaska. She won the state's at-large House seat in 2022 and remains the only Democrat to win statewide in recent years, even as Republicans continue to dominate presidential elections. The race has drawn national attention because Democrats were thought to have relatively few opportunities to flip Republican-held Senate seats in 2026.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, and Democratic incumbents must defend their seats and the party must win several close contests to flip control of the chamber. Alaska has become one of Democrats' most promising pickup opportunities because it combines a strong candidate in Peltola, a large bloc of independent voters and an unusual election system that uses both a nonpartisan top-four primary and ranked choice voting. The state is also unusual politically.
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