Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight across the Premier League weekend. There is something about Friday Night Football that seems to bring the goals out in the Premier League. Perhaps it is the occasion, perhaps it is the freedom that comes with being the only game on the schedule, but the numbers make for compelling reading if you are looking for an entertaining evening.
Across the last 17 Friday Night Football fixtures, games have averaged a whopping 3.76 goals per match. That is almost a full goal per game above the usual league average, while 12 of those 17 encounters have seen over 2.5 goals land. That is a trend worth respecting, particularly when the price is 10/11 for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score with Sky Bet here.
It is a more attractive proposition than simply backing the overs at the shorter price. We need three goals and both sides to contribute, but the Friday night data suggests these fixtures have been delivering plenty of entertainment. There is a decent chance referee John Brooks will be reaching for his pocket at Elland Road.
Brooks is one of the busiest officials with his cards in the Premier League. Since the start of last season, no referee has given more penalties or shown more red cards, while only Stuart Attwell has averaged more bookings per 90 minutes. Brooks is dishing out 4.75 cards per game.
That's a healthy starting point for an over 4.5 cards bet which can be backed here at 5/6 with Sky Bet. The kick-off time adds another layer of appeal. The last 17 Premier League matches to start at 12.30pm on a Saturday have averaged 4.8 cards per game, with six of the last seven clearing this line.
It's another trend worth respecting, particularly when the man in charge has such a strong appetite for disciplinary action. At 5/6 with Sky Bet, over 4.5 cards looks a price worth taking. There is little point trying to get Arsenal beat at 1/7 with Sky Bet.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
