Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight across the weekend Premier League action. Oliver Glanser's record against Unai Emery is an unusually strong tactical head-to-head that is more than just a cute statistic. Glasner is unbeaten in seven meeting with Emery, winning five and what gives this angle extra robustness is across the last five league meetings Glasner's team are creating 2.47 expected goals per 90.
He knows how to crack Emery's tactical plan as Glasner's teams are extremely comfortable allowing the opponent possession before attacking the spaces created when the opponent overcommits. This Glasner hold over Emery isn't factored enough into the match pricing so the draw no bet on Forest at 5/4 with Sky Bet is a touch generous. Brentford have been all the rage with the betting markets over the first three games with the belief that Keith Andrews has improved them over the summer, although a few fingers were burnt, my included, with their lacklustre showing in the 1-1 with Sunderland last weekend.
The sample size is small but there seems more aggression and pressing about Brentford this season with a rise in their high turnovers per 90 of 3.1 and 6.2 more fouls committed per 90. Vitaly Janelt has been responsible for a lot of that upsurge, making 10 fouls in four games and being booked in all three Premier League games. Up against Adam Scott, who draws over two fouls per game, and Justin Kluivert who was fouled three times at Newcastle, he's going to be in the firing line for fouls.
The 7/4 for him to make two or more fouls is a lovely slice of value. Hull arrive at Stamford Bridge with seven points from three games and three consecutive clean sheets. It's been jaw dropping the way they have adapted their game to this level of football.
And, this isn't a promoted side accidentally stumbling into three clean sheets. There is a system behind it. They are a well-oiled machine without the ball.
Yes, their expected goals numbers suggest they've ridden their luck to some degree - but this has been an impressive display of defensive organisation, which isn't a new trait. In their last 16 league games where they've enjoyed less than 45 per cent of the ball and started the match bigger than 2/1, they've conceded just nine goals, losing just two of those games, with those matches averaging a lowly 1.7 goals per game ratio. In that 16-game run they've conceded just two first-half goals.
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