Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, was in flying form last weekend - can he repeat the trick? Marc Guehi has been fouled 43 times in his last 17 matches for club and country, with opponents committing two or more fouls on him in 10 of those games. That is a hit rate of 59 per cent - comfortably above the probability implied by the 5/4 with Sky Bet, which makes this a value play.
The eye test backs it up, too. Guehi is far more comfortable carrying the ball into traffic than he was 12 months ago. He invites challenges, shields possession brilliantly and has become increasingly clever at using defenders' momentum against them.
Now add the Selhurst Park factor. This is Guehi's first return to his former club since joining Manchester City and it would be no surprise if the Palace crowd and players make him feel the heat. There is a target on his back here.
Also, Enzo Maresca surprisingly used Guehi in central midfield against Bournemouth. If he starts there again, this bet becomes even more appealing. There is an expectation of attacking football at Anfield, particularly with Liverpool's new-look side and the attacking reputation of their new manager Andoni Iraola.
But I think the goals market is asking Forest to contribute more than they have shown any evidence of doing so far under Oliver Glasner. They have failed to score in both games against Leeds, producing just 1.4 expected goals across 180 minutes. The lack of cutting edge has been worrying.
Glasner has pointed to the upheaval he inherited, key departures and the limited time he has had to implement his ideas. This project may take time. And there is a fascinating historical pointer.
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