Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight across the Premier League weekend. That's a long time in football. This international break with nations playing up to four matches rather than the usual two has the potential to have a huge effect on this Premier League return.
Fatigue, injuries, travel and late returns mixed in with teams still developing tactical identity so early in the season is going to influence matters more than the betting markets portray. The key is that the first half is the period most vulnerable to disruption after this break which I'm betting will be even more of a factor with the added time away on international duty in this unique break. When looking across the last five seasons in the Championship and Premier League in the matchday after the first international break, the numbers show that first-half goals per game go down by 0.3 of a goal.
First-half goal averages have come in at 1.22 across that period in the Championship and Premier League but fall to 0.92 in the first matchday after the first international break. The numbers become even more interesting when just assessing the Premier League during that period where the average is just 0.82 goals per first half. During that period the chances of a half-time 0-0 have increased too, with 50 per cent of the matches in that five-year sample size seeing no goals scored before the break.
That is a huge spike on the long-term numbers across five years of Premier League games which tell us that the normal average strike-rate for a 0-0 at half-time is just 27 per cent. Remarkably, Leeds have only conceded two first-half goals in their last 20 matches across all competitions with 11 of those games seeing a 0-0 come in at the break. It's a big runner here at 9/4 with Sky Bet.
The Premier League has become such a congested - and at times bonkers - league that we've reached the stage where Brentford are almost being priced as favourites to beat Aston Villa at Villa Park. I get the love for Brentford - but ranking them above an Unai Emery side on home soil feels like a dangerous game to play. The market still looks cold on Villa, but I think their rebuild is quietly coming together.
Johan Manzambi, Zion Suzuki and Nicolas Jackson all shone in the win at Tottenham and, despite so many new faces, there was an encouraging cohesion to Villa's performance. That shouldn't necessarily come as a surprise. These players are working under a manager who knows exactly what he is doing, especially after an international break where Emery is unbeaten across his last 10 matches with Villa, winning six of them.
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