Perhaps it’s the purported discovery of “Noah’s Ark” somewhere in Turkey by a QAnon bizarro. Maybe it’s the Russian soldiers losing the bones of a medieval saint on the Ukrainian front lines (a claim denied by the Russian Orthodox Church). Or could it be unruly Texan children ignoring the Ten Commandments?
Thou shalt not take the Lord’s name in vain, nor covet your neighbor’s Ford Bronco. Whatever the reason, the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse appear to be upon us, in this time of renewed biblical literalism. And that’s all before we’ve even left the White House.
But fear not: this is a financial opportunity as much as it is the end of times. As with everything, there’s a prediction market for the different flavors of Armageddon. We tallied trading volumes, horse by horse, and it isn’t a close race.
So place your bets now, ladies and gentlemen. The black horse’s rider carries a pair of balances. A voice announces the going rate: “A measure of wheat for a penny.” It’s the closest Revelation comes to market data.
Famine isn’t a horse you can back, though. We couldn’t find a live market on famine, and that’s a good thing. But don’t give these amoral prediction markets too much credit.
Kalshi did once list a contract on whether the IPC, the U.N.-backed hunger monitor, would classify Gaza as experiencing famine in 2025. It settled Yes at a market volume of just $2,580. Perhaps most bettors have a conscience after all.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
