Police are heading for failure unless the number of forces in England and Wales is slashed, with their ability to catch criminals collapsing and public confidence falling, Britain’s top officer will say on Friday. The stark comments from Sir Mark Rowley, the commissioner of the Metropolitan police, come as some police leaders demand a radical package of reforms. An official review ordered by the government has concluded that the number of police forces in England should be cut from 39 to as few as nine “super forces”, according to multiple sources.
The review, carried out by the former Met police commissioner Bernard Hogan-Howe, is yet to be published. Sources say that under consideration is the establishment of nine regional forces, plus a single force for Wales, which would sit above more than 150 local policing units that would deliver most neighbourhood crime-fighting activities. The axing of most of the 43 forces in England and Wales is seen as essential by the Hogan-Howe review and some police chiefs.
Those chiefs, including Rowley, are concerned that the government may delay the most radical change to policing in seven decades. Hogan-Howe’s review was completed in September and sent to the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood. Government sources say only that it will be published before Christmas, with a white paper due in the new year.
The delay is understood to be because of Andy Burnham’s devolution agenda and desire to “rewire” the British state and reform local government, including adding more mayors. One police source said: “There are some concerns Andy Burnham may want to align the new police structures with mayors, which could mean 20 or more forces. That is not a radical enough change.” Rowley will speak at an event in Manchester on Friday where he and other chiefs including Greater Manchester’s chief constable, Sir Stephen Watson, will press for a reduction in the number of forces.
The event’s title is “The cost of standing still is that criminals will win”. Some other chief constables have told the Guardian they are annoyed by the Met-organised event and are sceptical or do not support the big reduction down to nine forces. Cutting the number of forces in England and Wales is the centrepiece of Mahmood’s radical changes to policing.
Hogan-Howe’s report, multiple sources say, gives a range of how many larger forces there should be in the new policing landscape, from nine to 18. Rowley will say in his speech that public confidence has already fallen and that positive outcomes – that is, crimes detected by officers that lead to a charge, caution, out of court settlement or no further action – “are now less than half what they were 12 years ago”. According to extracts released before the speech, Rowley will say: “I believe this is a choice between the third greatest revolution in British policing or the inevitable decline and fewer bobbies on the beat.” He will say the 43 forces in England and Wales should be cut to eight or 10, and add: “Policing has tried to keep up, made do as best it can to patch over our broken model … But the model is creaking.
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