Jai Krishan, a 43-year-old labourer from Bihar in northern India, has saved 15,000 rupees ($160) to travel home from Indian-administered Kashmir, where he works, to celebrate Diwali with his family in November. Each year, he buys boxes of sweets — laddu, barfi and kaju katli — to take home as gifts for his family and friends. He spends about $35 just on sweets for Diwali, he says, as he prepares afternoon tea for himself and his roommates in their rented accommodation in the Hawal area of Srinagar, Indian-administered Kashmir’s largest city.
But Diwali is one of the most important festivals for Hindus and you cannot skip celebrating it,” he says. This year, though, Krishan fears he may have to cut back on other purchases — such as toys and clothes — to keep his limited budget under control. The price of sugar has risen sharply in recent months, with retail prices reaching as high as 75 rupees ($0.79) per kilogramme (2.2 pounds) — up from 40 rupees in September 2025 — in some markets, raising concerns that the cost of sweets could also increase.
The price rise comes as India enters its festival season. Celebrations begin in late August with festivals such as Ganesh Chaturthi and Onam, before gathering pace in October and November with Navratri, Durga Puja, Dussehra and Diwali, popularly known as the festival of lights. India’s sweets sector is worth more than $1.1bn, with peak festive sales accounting for more than 40 percent of annual revenue.
Traditional sweets can contain 30 to 60 percent sugar by weight, making sugar a major ingredient. India is the world’s largest consumer and second-largest producer of sugar. The country consumes between 29 million and 32 million metric tonnes of sugar each year, roughly 15 percent of global consumption.
But it produces about 20 percent of the world’s sugar, second only to Brazil — an amount that means that the country usually has enough supplies of sugar for its needs, with some to spare for exports. Sugar production, according to government data, is expected to be about 30.6 million tonnes in the current season, which runs from October 2025 to September 2026. This is 11 percent lower than the government’s earlier estimate of 34.3 million tonnes.
The government attributes the lower production mainly to a decline in sugarcane cultivation and lower rainfall during the El Nino weather pattern. It has also accused hoarders of storing extra sugar once the effects of El Nino became clear, to further tighten supplies in a bid to earn extra profits. But Mukesh Chandra, a sugarcane farmer from Punjab, says several other factors have contributed to the fall in production and the rise in sugar prices.
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