One of the most difficult exercises to do every year before the start of the college basketball season is to predict what the preseason AP Top 25 poll will look like when it is dropped for the first time. The 2026-27 season is even more challenging because a majority of the teams on this list have at least one impactful player who may or may not be eligible due to pending five-for-five lawsuits. Keeping up with players who are eligible one day and ineligible the next this offseason has been a headache in itself.
Take a team such as Texas Tech. The Red Raiders could see Donovan Atwell, Darrion Williams and Jamichael Stillwell all suit up this season if they're granted a fifth year. If Texas Tech is at full strength, they should be a consensus top 10 team.
Instead, I have the Red Raiders at No. 23 in the preseason projections because who knows how voters will decide whether to factor in those three players. Texas Tech certainly isn't alone. There are key players throughout the sport whose eligibility has a chance to swing a team at least a good half dozen spots in preseason projections.
Here is what we do know: Florida will be the preseason No. 1 team for the first time since 2006. The Gators are going to be the team to beat in college basketball this season after returning four starters from a team that was a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in 2026 and won the national title the year before. After that, Duke and Illinois are widely expected to occupy the No. 2 and 3 spots in the poll.
We are confident in where those three teams will be heading into what should be a very exciting season. This recurring post is normally called Tomorrow's Top 25 Today, though this time it comes a few days early with the AP preseason Top 25 poll set to be released Monday. Let's dive in, starting with the team expected to be the consensus preseason No. 1.
Florida returns Boogie Fland, Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Urban Klavzar from a team that won 27 games and earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive year. As of now, Denzel Aberdeen — who transferred from Florida to Kentucky and then back to Florida this offseason — is eligible to play after being granted a temporary injunction last month. The Gators have arguably the most talented starting lineup in college basketball with Aberdeen in the fold and should receive a majority of the first-place votes.
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