Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) has spent decades outpacing the market. Even after its big run in 2023 and 2024, I think it is still on track to beat the S&P 500 over the next year and remains a solid buy for patient investors. The ticker has outperformed the S&P 500 in 16 out of the 25 years between 2000 and 2025, giving it a historical win rate of 64% over that 25-year span.
This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia.
Continue » Over longer stretches, the record speaks for itself. Over the past five years, Costco has delivered a total return of about 124% versus roughly 75% for the S&P 500. Over three years, it has beaten the index again with a 76% gain, versus about 75% for the benchmark.
The stock has climbed more than 28,000% in real terms since the mid-1980s. That kind of compounding is hard to find in consumer goods. Even after a modest pullback from its May all-time high near $1,094, Costco still sits near $950 and has held most of its recent gains while the broader market has seen more volatility.
There is a reason for all this success. Costco's engine is not a fad. It is a membership model that generates a steady stream of high-margin fee income alongside fast-moving sales.
Renewal rates in the United States and Canada are above 92%, and global renewal is near 90%, meaning almost nine out of 10 members pay to come back year after year. That is a very sticky base. On top of that, the company continues to deliver strong operating results.
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