This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: About a decade ago, a group of climate scientists described five scenarios for the future. Called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), these scenarios suggest how socioeconomic development could evolve in worlds with differing challenges to climate adaptation and mitigation.
One SSP, "Sustainability," envisions a collective shift toward green energy, reduced economic inequities and investment in research and development. Another, "Regional Rivalry," paints a picture of a world riven by nationalism and fighting over resources. In that future, high levels of conflict stifle economic development.
Rich countries see slower population growth, while birth rates increase in poorer nations. Scientists and policymakers use SSPs to project how today's choices affect tomorrow's world. But for complex subjects like public health, these intentionally simple scenarios don't capture every complexity.
Under the SSP "Fossil-Fueled Development," for example, the world doubles down on fossil fuels, spurring rapid economic growth. That growth, according to the scenario, would spur investments in education and health. But at the same time, increased emissions would degrade the environment, exacerbating health risks.
That description leaves many public health questions unanswered: Would hospital systems be better prepared to handle the increased volume? Could more frequent heat waves lead people to spend more time inside, amplifying mental health burdens? Last year, a group of 63 experts in climate change and health met in Vienna to extend the SSPs to better reflect the dynamic nature of public health over the course of the century.
Their expanded narratives, published Oct. 5 in The Lancet Planetary Health, provide comprehensive visions of possible population health and health system development and explore how communities might better prepare for shifting future health risks. Carole Green, a UW doctoral student in environmental and occupational health sciences, attended the workshop and is lead author of the accompanying paper. UW News sat down with Green to talk about where previous climate scenarios fell short, the conference's work and how we can better prepare to keep each other safe in an uncertain future.
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