This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: A rare trio of hurricanes were churning through the Pacific Ocean on Thursday, which scientists attributed to waters warmed by a historically strong El Niño phenomenon. Tropical Storm Marie strengthened into a hurricane late Wednesday off the coast of Baja California, lining up behind Hurricanes Karina and Lowell—both rated Category 4—which were making their way westward across the Pacific.
Three hurricanes are "definitely rare to see," Julia Cole, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan, told AFP. "El Niño warming sets the stage for these storms, which are fueled in large part by warm waters—when the tropical Pacific is warmer than normal we see an increase in strong storms," Cole said. Lowell was about 440 miles (710 kilometers) south of Hilo, Hawaii, and "is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next several days" as it moves west, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
"Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands during the next several days," the NHC said, adding that its long-range track and intensity forecasts were "more uncertain than usual." Hawaii is still recovering from the impacts of Hurricane Lala, which brushed past the southern part of the Big Island last month, bringing destructive winds and severe flash floods. The NHC said late Wednesday that Karina weakened slightly as it moved northwest but is likely to remain a hurricane for the next couple of days. Lowell and Karina are followed to the east by Marie, which was 375 miles (600 kilometers) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and expected to strengthen through Friday, according to the NHC.
Warm waters provide fuel for storms, and El Niño's effect on the atmosphere leaves little vertical wind shear over the Pacific, creating favorable conditions for hurricanes to intensify. "The climate system has significantly warmed over the last 20 years or so," said Benjamin Kirtman, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Miami. The sea surface temperature anomaly—how much warmer the ocean is compared with average—is already near a record high, Kirtman added.
"There's no other way to put it—it is juicy out there right now," he told AFP. A similar trend took place in 2015, another intense El Niño year, when Hurricane Kilo, Ignacio, Jimena and Tropical Depression 14E crossed the Pacific at once. This year's El Niño has a 69% chance of becoming the strongest on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and is already unleashing extreme weather across the globe even though it is not expected to peak until October–December.
Peru, the world's largest anchovy catcher, is facing a devastating blow from warming seas that have gutted production, according to industry officials. In Sudan, El Niño is blamed for delaying crucial rains that have led water levels in the Nile to drop precipitously. El Niño is the warming phase of a natural cycle in the tropical Pacific known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and occurs every two to seven years.
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