This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Researchers at Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE) have reconstructed approximately 16,000 years of summer temperature changes from sediments collected at Lake Prokoško in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The findings show how the Western Balkans responded to rapid climate changes at the end of the last glacial period, how warmer and cooler phases unfolded during the Holocene, and how the impact of human land use became increasingly pronounced.
The research was led by Enikő Magyari, a researcher at the Department of Environmental and Landscape Geography, ELTE Faculty of Science, and head of the DOMINO-CLIMATE Élvonal project. Lake Prokoško, covering just 4.8 hectares (11.9 acres), lies at an elevation of 1,670 meters (5,480 feet) in the Vranica Mountains, part of the Dinaric Alps. Over thousands of years, remains from the surrounding landscape and the lake's own ecosystem accumulated in its bottom sediments, making it possible to reconstruct the region's environmental and climatic history in detail.
Two studies by ELTE researchers published in 2026 examined different periods represented in the same sediment sequence. Magyari, head of the Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences at ELTE, doctoral researcher Eszter Tombor, and their colleagues analyzed the rapid changes that occurred approximately 16,000–10,000 years ago, during the Late Glacial period and the beginning of the Holocene. Their findings were published in the journal Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology.
In a separate study published in Quaternary Science Reviews, Magyari's research group traced the history of the Holocene, with contributions from their Czech colleague Aneta Formáčková, among others. Together, the two studies provide a continuous picture of how summers in the Western Balkans have changed from the end of the last glacial period to the present day. Chironomids played a key role in reconstructing past temperatures.
Their larvae live on lake beds, and different species prefer different water temperatures, oxygen levels and nutrient conditions. After molting, their chitinous head capsules sink to the lake bed, where they can remain preserved in the sediment for tens of thousands of years. By examining the chironomids' head capsules recovered from the sediments, the researchers identified the species that inhabited the lake during different periods.
Comparing these findings with faunal and climate data from hundreds of modern European lakes made it possible to estimate past mean July temperatures. In addition to chironomids, the researchers analyzed pollen, sediment particles, organic matter and geochemical elements. This enabled them to track not only temperature changes but also changes in forests, soil erosion and the condition of the lake.
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