Republican attorney general candidate Ron Schutz has moved ahead of incumbent Keith Ellison in Minnesota's attorney general race, 45 percent to 43 percent, according to a new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll. Although the challenger’s two-point edge is within the poll’s margin of error, it marks the first KSTP/SurveyUSA survey this cycle to place Schutz in front, suggesting what would be a major shift in a statewide office Republicans have failed to win for roughly six decades. Ellison, who has held the office since 2019 and is seeking a third term, now faces a tighter political environment with seven weeks remaining before the November 3 Election Day.
Newsweek reached out to the Schutz and Ellison campaigns for comment via email on Thursday morning and is awaiting responses. Minnesota has had a Democratic attorney general since January 1971, when Republican Douglas M. Head left office and Warren Spannaus succeeded him.
Ellison won by four points in 2018 and less than one point in 2022, making the latest movement significant without establishing a clear favorite. Seven weeks before Election Day, a new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll suggests Minnesota's attorney general race may be headed for its closest finish in years. The survey interviewed 900 adults statewide, including 654 likely voters, from September 9-14, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points among likely voters.
It found Republican Schutz leading Democratic incumbent Ellison by two points, with 12 percent saying they remained undecided, a remaining bloc substantially larger than the gap separating the nominees. While the lead falls within the survey's margin of error, the broader trend is what will draw attention from political strategists. According to SurveyUSA, Ellison led Schutz in each of the first three polls conducted over the past three months.
The candidates were tied in the previous survey. And the latest results are the first showing Schutz with an advantage. The demographic shifts highlighted by KSTP point to a changing coalition beneath the headline number, with age producing the clearest contrast.
Ellison still leads voters aged 18 to 34 by 15 points, but that advantage has narrowed significantly compared with the previous poll. Schutz now performs especially strongly among voters aged 50 to 64, while the race among voters 65 and older has tightened considerably. Among men, Schutz leads by seven points, while Ellison holds a five-point advantage among women.
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