Republican Senator Pete Ricketts and independent Dan Osborn are tied in a new internal poll of the Nebraska Senate race released by the Osborn campaign on Wednesday. President Donald Trump easily won Nebraska in each of his three presidential bids, and the state is viewed as among the most reliably Republican in the nation. But its Senate race may become competitive this year because of Osborn, an independent mechanic and labor leader who came surprisingly close to winning in Nebraska in the 2024 Senate race, losing by fewer than 7 points despite Trump winning the state by more than 20 points on the same ballot.
Osborn’s supporters hope he may be better positioned to flip the seat in November because of a less favorable national environment for Republicans. Trump’s approval rating has dropped since his return to office as voters have become frustrated with his approach to the economy, inflation and the Iran war. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, and Democrats believe the president’s declining approval rating will expand the electoral battleground and give them an opportunity to compete in more conservative territory.
Osborn, however, has aligned himself with neither major political party. He has said he would not caucus with either Democrats or Republicans, though he has been endorsed by the Nebraska Democratic Party. Democrats are not running a candidate in this race, meaning voters will pick between Ricketts and Osborn in November.
The new poll from Impact Research, a Democratic-aligned firm, showed both Osborn and Ricketts with 47 percent support, with 5 percent remaining undecided about how they will vote in November. It touted that as an improvement from February, when Ricketts held a single-point lead over Osborn, 48 percent to 47 percent. On the generic ballots, Republicans held an 11-point lead in Nebraska, the poll found.
It found that Osborn’s favorability stood at +4 points, 48 percent favorable versus 44 percent unfavorable. Ricketts’ favorability, meanwhile, was at -10 points, 44 percent favorable and 54 percent unfavorable, according to the poll. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters August 9 to 13, 2026, and had a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.
Osborn wrote in a statement released by his campaign that the poll “tells us what I hear every day all across Nebraska.” “In every corner of this state, Nebraskans tell me they’re sick of career politicians and billionaires who think they can buy a Senate seat, hide behind millions in slick ads, and never answer to the people,” he said. Ricketts’ campaign manager Max Oberg dismissed the poll in a statement to Newsweek. Winning campaigns don't have to.
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