Republicans were dealt a quadruple polling blow in the Michigan Senate race this week as four new polls gave progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a lead over former Representative Mike Rogers, a Republican. El-Sayed’s victory over centrist Representative Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary created anxiety among some in the party about their chances in Michigan, a critical swing state—particularly after a recent Fox News poll showed Rogers with a lead. Some Democrats fear El-Sayed may be too far left for such an evenly divided state.
The Michigan Senate race is one of the most important Senate races of the 2026 midterms, as Democrats’ chances of flipping control of the Senate run through the Great Lakes State. A Democratic loss in Michigan, a seat currently held by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters, would significantly complicate their path to a majority. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats during the midterms, so Democrats have been hopeful about their chances of winning in swing states.
But Republicans do see an opportunity in the state, hoping that Rogers can win over moderate voters who may not be aligned with El-Sayed’s more progressive brand of politics. The series of polls showed El-Sayed with narrow, single-digit leads, meaning the race against Rogers is still expected to be competitive in November. However, they may be welcome news for Democrats after some polling around the primary gave Rogers an advantage.
An AARP poll released on Thursday found El-Sayed leading Rogers by a single point, 48 percent to 47 percent. El-Sayed received support from 91 percent of Democratic respondents, while Rogers received support from 96 percent of Republicans. Independents narrowly broke for El-Sayed, 48 percent to 42 percent.
There are signs in the poll El-Sayed still has work to do in consolidating the base. He had a 41-point lead among Black voters. Although that’s a lead, it is much more narrow than former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 76-point win among Black voters in Michigan during the 2024 election, per CNN exit poll data.
It surveyed 877 likely voters from August 9 to 11, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. It was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research. Meanwhile, a survey from Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. showed El-Sayed up 7 points, 46 percent to 39 percent.
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