Montana’s 1st Congressional District, which President Donald Trump carried by 12 points in 2024, has been nudged into the tossup column, the latest sign that Republicans face a more competitive fight in a reliably red stronghold. The rating change by the Cook Political Report comes hot on the heels of a new poll showing independent Senate candidate Seth Bodnar narrowly leading Republican Kurt Alme by two percentage points. Together, the two developments suggest that even Republican-friendly territory is not immune from the political currents making the 2026 midterms increasingly competitive.
Earlier this week, Sabato's Crystal Ball—another non-partisan political forecasting outlet—shifted three Republican-held Senate seats towards Democrats or independents, including Mississippi. This is a developing story and will be updated.
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