Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand, a Democrat, holds a narrow lead over Republican businessman Zach Lahn in the state's open governor's race. A new poll shows the margin holding even as economic strain on farmers and a souring view of President Donald Trump complicate the Republican Party's decade-long grip on the state. A Suffolk University poll released Wednesday found Sand ahead of Lahn 48 percent to 44 percent among 500 likely Iowa voters, with 9 percent undecided.
The survey, conducted August 20-23, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Sand's advantage has held across a string of surveys this summer, though its size keeps shifting. An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar survey conducted August 2-4 had Sand up 48 percent to 43 percent.
A New York Times/Siena College poll from mid-to-late June found a tighter 48 percent to 47 percent race. A Fox News poll conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research in late June showed Sand's widest lead of the cycle, 53 percent to 44 percent. "These races are within the statistical margin of error," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, pointing out that the same voters who picked Trump by double digits in 2024 are now split almost evenly on governor and Senate.
Suffolk's poll of the Muscatine County bellwether, long treated as a proxy for the statewide electorate, produced nearly identical numbers: Sand ahead 48 percent to 44 percent, with 8 percent undecided. Prediction markets have moved even further than the polls. In June 2025, Kalshi gave Republicans a 71 percent chance of holding the governor's office to Democrats' 29 percent.
Democrats now sit at roughly 74 to 78 percent on Kalshi, depending on the day, with Polymarket showing a similar tilt. Polymarket got there first, shifting toward Democrats back in January. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss-Up over the same period, ranking Iowa as Democrats' best gubernatorial pickup opportunity of the cycle, citing Sand's fundraising and his track record of winning statewide.
Iowa backed former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. It swung to Trump in 2016 and 2020, and again in 2024, when he carried the state by more than 13 points. Republicans hold every statewide office but one, control both chambers of the legislature with supermajorities, and occupy all four of Iowa's U.S.
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