Plans to fill a gap in the global governance of autonomous weapons are in jeopardy as a group of nations led by Russia and the US move to use a UN conference this month to block proposals to negotiate a legally binding set of rules. The scale of the opposition will become clear at a diplomatic retreat starting on Friday before the seventh review conference on “certain conventional weapons” in Geneva due to be attended by 128 countries from 16 to 20 November. The review conference is seen as the key moment when the world could decide whether to back a mandate to negotiate a legally binding instrument negotiated within a defined timetable.
The speed with which autonomous weapons are being developed and used in warfare is widely acknowledged. Anna Hehir, the head of military AI governance at the Future of Life Institute, an independent nonprofit, said: “States have never been closer to launching a global agreement on AI weapons. A lot of the hard work has already been done and states have now agreed by consensus to elements of a draft treaty text that would be the basis for negotiations to start.
The proposals for more years of discussions on non-legally binding measures are smokescreens to keep autonomous weapons systems unregulated and states unaccountable for their use.” Discussions have been under way on the issue inside the UN for nearly three years but Russia, the US and Israel, among others, are pushing against the review conference setting a timetable for a legally binding instrument. In an intervention timed to influence the review conference, Pope Leo XIV stressed that decisions relating to human life could never be given to machines. He said: “Decisions affecting human life, freedom and the use of force must always remain subject to effective, informed and responsible human oversight.
For this reason, artificial intelligence must be ‘disarmed’, and I encourage the states meeting in Geneva in November to take concrete steps toward banning lethal autonomous weapons.” Human Rights Watch and the campaign group Stop Killer Robots argue that weapons systems, assisted by AI, are proven to behave unpredictably, increasing the risk of fatal errors and battlefields spinning out of human control. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said on Thursday: “The time has come to move from discussion to negotiation on new international rules to regulate autonomous systems. The world cannot afford further delays.” In July, Ukraine reported for the first time that Russia had used an AI-guided drone, which struck a propane tank at a fuel station in Zaporizhzhia.
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has warned about the speed of AI weapon development, calling for the Ukraine war to be ended before AI takes over the battlefield. On 22 October, a coalition of 50 states including Ireland, Italy, Brazil, Mexico, France and Germany called for the conference to agree a strict negotiating mandate. The ICRC separately reported that more than 70 states supported beginning negotiations on a legal instrument.
The UK did not back the Irish statement and has previously argued that existing international humanitarian law is sufficient basis for the regulation of such weapons. The Ireland-led group proposed a mandate to be agreed by the review conference that would establish a time-limited expert group tasked with negotiating the needed rules over three sessions in Geneva in 2027, totalling 25 days. The group would be required to submit a report containing the draft protocol to that year’s annual meeting, expected to take place later in 2027.
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