Russia’s battlefield gains in Ukraine have fallen to almost nothing this year, according to the latest figures from independent observers and Kyiv’s military. Territory seized by Russian forces in the first 10 months of 2026 amounts to 117.38 sq km (45.32 sq miles), according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank that uses open-source geolocated footage. By comparison, gains in 2025 were 5,304 sq km (2,047.95 sq miles), including 473 sq km (182.63 sq miles) of Russian territory recaptured in the Kursk region, while in 2024 they were 3,604 sq km (1,391.31 sq miles).
That means Russia advanced at a rate of 0.38 sq km (0.15 sq miles) a day this year, compared with 13.25 sq km (5.12 sq miles) a day in 2025 and 9.9 sq km (3.82 sq miles) a day in 2024. In addition, Russia is suffering higher casualties this year. Ukraine’s General Staff put the estimated number of Russian personnel killed or seriously wounded from January 1 to October 31 at 381,300.
Al Jazeera cannot independently verify casualty claims by either side. Estimated Russian losses have repeatedly broken new monthly records for the entire war since the summer – 42,860 in July, 46,230 in September and 54,400 in October – as Ukraine’s military sought to reach a monthly target of 50,000 casualties set by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in January. The losses are far beyond Russia’s estimated recruitment capacity of 24,000-30,000 a month.
While Russia lost firm control of Ukrainian territory in April and May, it increased its areas of infiltration, where control is contested. In September and October, however, Russia lost both firmly controlled and infiltrated territory, ISW assessments show. Zelenskyy and his prime minister have cited these worsening trends as the reasons why Russia is intensifying long-range strikes targeting energy infrastructure.
Civilians have been killed in those attacks, leading Ukrainians to believe that Moscow is opting for psychological warfare. Russia unleashed an unusually heavy barrage during the week ending on November 6, including 2,346 drones and more than 80 missiles across Ukraine. The strikes reached a crescendo on November 3, with 370 drones and 76 missiles.
Hundreds of thousands of families are struggling with blackouts at the beginning of winter. In one of Russia’s deadliest attacks this year, in the village of Komyshuvakha in the Zaporizhzhia region, at least 50 people were killed. Residents of the community come here for food, medicine, essential items,” Ukraine’s military intelligence service (GUR) said.
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