Russia’s attempts to develop its own version of the Starlink satellite network have failed to reach the right altitude to work properly, it has been reported. Moscow is rushing to launch satellites called "Rassvet" to replace Starlink connectivity over Ukraine after Russia lost access to the SpaceX-owned communications network. Musk’s decision to deny Russian forces access to his service immediately affected the battlefield, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky awarded SpaceX CEO Elon Musk his country’s Order of Liberty on August 26.
Meanwhile, Moscow’s version continues to hit snags, with none of the 16 Rassvet satellites from a second batch launched on July 19 reaching an altitude of 340 miles as of August 31, according to data from live satellite tracker N2YO. These altitudes are short of the intended 540-mile operational altitude, with many only reaching as low as 180 miles; some are experiencing orbital decay, and at least two are heading for reentry into Earth’s atmosphere, according to the latest update from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Newsweek reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.
Russia learned the hard lesson that relying on Musk’s Starlink network for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine left its military vulnerable when the SpaceX founder turned it off. This has focused Moscow on creating its own variant, Rassvet, which means “dawn or daybreak” in Russian, backed by billions of dollars in private and government investment. Since launching the experimental Rassvet-1 and Rassvet-2 in 2023 and 2024, the aerospace company Bureau 1440 behind it has begun Rassvet-3 launches ahead of an expected commercial service in 2027.
But the apparent failure of all 16 satellites from its second launch to reach operational altitudes suggests Moscow was not ready to roll out the constellation as planned, the ISW said. "Russia may have been unprepared to accelerate constellation deployment at this pace and will likely face additional delays," the Washington, D.C.-based think tank said in its Monday update. Hardie from the FDD said Russia's Rassvet launch rate is behind the schedule it set for itself.
Ukraine's presidential adviser on defense technologies, Serhiy Beskrestnov, said in a Telegram post on May 31 that Moscow needs to successfully launch at least 200 to 300 satellites to achieve stable connectivity over Ukraine, but this is likely to be beyond Russia’s capability in the short term. However, the ISW said that the existing Rassvet satellite constellation was still a threat to Ukraine, as it may allow Russian forces to conduct more precise strikes using remotely controlled unmanned systems. "Even partially successful Rassvet launches could allow Russian forces to increasingly use satellite communications on the battlefield and in their strikes against Ukraine," the ISW said.
Hardie said deadlines in most Russian R&D and weapons development programs are almost always missed, but the capability is often fielded and may be successful. Adding to Russia’s plans for its satellite network is the threat posed by Ukraine. On August 15, Ukrainian forces said they struck the Progress Space Center in Samara with Flamingo cruise missiles.
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