Volodymyr Zelenskyy has declared that Russia’s airspace is becoming unsafe for commercial airlines, as Vladimir Putin promised to increase strikes against Ukraine’s energy facilities in the run-up to winter. The Ukrainian president said there was no intention to directly threaten civilian flights, but the growing number of attack drones being flown into Russia by Ukraine would have to be “taken into account” by the aviation industry. Ukraine’s foreign secretary, Andrii Sybiha, said Kyiv had notified the International Civil Aviation Organization that “Russian airspace is not safe for civilian aviation” because of increased military activity.
A rapid escalation of Ukrainian military capability in the past few months has allowed Ukraine’s forces to strike at targets around Moscow, St Petersburg and other locations deep inside Russia. Reliable figures for the number of drone flights are hard to obtain but Ukraine is already capable of launching a few hundred a day, and military sources say the country is chasing a target of 1,000 drones in an effort to hurt Russia’s economy. Justin Bronk, an aviation analyst at the Royal United Services Institute thinktank, said he believed Ukraine could force “periodic closures of Russian airports on a semi-regular basis” by relying on an element of surprise.
It could do so by flying small waves of drones at short notice, though trying to close an airport permanently would be difficult, he said, because a sustained attack would become predictable and easier for air-defence systems to halt. Ukraine’s commercial airspace has been closed since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 because Russia has been able to strike targets throughout the country, making airports unsafe for civilians. This year, Ukraine began bombing oil refineries and warehouses near Moscow and St Petersburg, as well as hitting military and industrial sites at ranges in excess of 2,000km (1,250 miles) from its border.
Concerns linger about the safety of civilian aviation in the war zone. A Malaysian Airlines plane flying over eastern Ukraine in July 2014 was shot down by Russian separatists operating a surface-to-air missile launcher. All 298 people onboard were killed.
Putin described Zelenskyy’s remarks as “state terrorism”, saying: “Negotiations are not conducted with terrorists.” Giving one of his most detailed updates on the war, the Russian leader told a news conference that Moscow was preparing to increase its bombing of Ukrainian energy facilities this winter, aiming to knock out heating and electricity supplies. They are striking us, and they will get a response,” Putin told reporters after a two-day summit in Kyrgyzstan. Putin sought to stress that Russian forces retained the initiative on the battlefield in Ukraine, despite Moscow’s slowing progress.
He appeared to push back against western intelligence reports suggesting he was being given an overly optimistic picture of the war, saying he relied on numerous sources of information that together provided him with an “objective assessment” of the battlefield. Russia’s sluggish advance on the battlefield has fuelled speculation that the Kremlin could resort to another round of mobilisation, the first since Putin called up about 300,000 reservists in September 2022. Zelenskyy and western officials have said Moscow could be preparing such a move, though its diplomats do not consider it a certainty.
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