The world is on course for its hottest year on record as the planet is hit with warming from climate change and El Niño, scientists have told BBC News. The warning comes as world leaders and negotiators gather in Turkey on Monday for the opening of COP31, the latest UN climate summit. Berkeley Earth, the independent US research group behind the forecast, said that even with two months of the year left it is 95% confident that 2026 will surpass the previous record set in 2024.
The impact of rising heat has been felt acutely in recent months by countries attending COP, with extensive wildfires across Europe and the sudden glacier collapse in Nepal which killed more than 1,000 people. "We have had a run of record warm years," said Dr Robert Rohde, of Berkeley Earth. "That is what we expect as global warming progresses… glaciers collapsing, record-breaking heatwaves and droughts." On Friday, the EU's Copernicus climate service, external confirmed that October was the hottest on record.
But Rohde warned this was just the start. "There is potential for much larger and much more dramatic changes down the line," he said. The main driver of rising global temperatures has been the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, largely caused by burning fossil fuels.
The UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published its own report on Monday, external, and although more cautious than Berkeley, it has forecast that 2026 will be among the four warmest years on record. It said that 2027 will provide no let-up, as an unusually powerful El Niño will continue into next year, pushing temperatures higher. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said it "gives new meaning to the phrase off the charts".
The findings underline the challenge facing negotiators gathering in the seaside Turkish city of Antalya for COP31. At previous meetings the focus has been on reducing emissions - tackling the cause of climate change. But now an increasing number of nations are facing the reality of having to do that alongside adapting to new weather extremes as the planet warms.
"No single COP is a silver bullet. No single conference can bridge the chasm between the science and reality," Simon Stiell, the UN's climate chief, is expected to tell governments on the opening morning. But he will add "the urgency of this moment must drive us forward.
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