Scientists Say Scorching Temperatures Brought on by the 'Super' El Niño Could Kill Nearly Half a Million People by February

Extreme heat caused by the “super” El Niño currently brewing in the Pacific Ocean could cause nearly half a million deaths by the end of February. The estimate, described in a report released in September by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab, found that people living in the Global South will be hardest hit. Although the work has not been peer-reviewed, the authors say their findings are urgent enough to publicize prior to formal publication.

They plan to submit it to a scientific journal, and in the meantime, they hope that it can guide humanitarian and government decisions in the coming months to avoid some of the predicted deaths. That could involve the implementation of heat warnings, health outreach to vulnerable populations and cooling and hydration centers. The projection is based on the Climate Impact Lab’s previous research looking at the relationships between temperature and additional heat deaths in more than 24,000 regions worldwide.

The connections were then applied to the temperature anomalies expected to be brought on by the current El Niño climate swing, which began in June and will extend through February. Since it started, the team estimates excess heat has caused more than 200,000 deaths. Overall, the researchers predict about 451,000 heat-related deaths during the entire El Niño event.

That means hundreds of thousands of lives are at risk over the next several months. Strengthening El Niño events In a study published in August, climate records captured in corals revealed that El Niño climate swings have grown stronger since humans started burning more fossil fuels. Africa’s Sahel region, a semi-arid zone that stretches across the continent just south of the Sahara Desert, is expected to be most affected.

There, excess heat could kill an additional 66,800 people from September through February compared with a normal year. Almost half of those deaths are attributed to Nigeria, according to the report, and Sudan, Niger, and Chad are also facing high fatalities. South and Southeast Asia will also be severely impacted.

In the coming months, the researchers project 19,300 additional deaths in Indonesia; 15,800 in India; and 19,400 collectively in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. Climate change is expected to bring a similar heat increase in 20 years. The number of deaths might rise beyond the estimate, they add, since the scorching temperatures caused by El Niño could linger into June and July of next year.