The record global heat caused by this year’s powerful “super El Nino” could cause nearly half a million excess deaths worldwide by early next year, according to a report (PDF) published by the global research collaboration, Climate Impact Lab, on Wednesday. So what does the report reveal, how has climate change supercharged the effects of El Nino and should we all be really worried? Climate Impact Lab (CIL)’s report has found that as many as 451,000 more heat-related deaths between June this year and the end of February 2027 could be caused by the effects of El Nino, than the number expected in an average year.
The study’s authors came to their projections after researching the relationship between temperature and excess mortality in 24,378 regions, taking local climate and vulnerability into account. They combined those findings with temperature forecasts to estimate excess deaths which could arise from heat caused by El Nino compared with the 1996-2025 average. Their methodology will be published in a peer-reviewed journal.
The number of extremely hot days is likely to rise by 44 percent compared with normal years, according to the report, titled, “451,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Nino”. The researchers described this year’s El Nino as a “postcard from the future”, ushering in temperatures that will become the new normal in just a few decades. It recommended that emergency response efforts should be directed to high-priority regions to tackle heat-related mortality in the coming months.
CIL’s Adaptation Inventory recommends implementing a number of measures to help vulnerable populations cope with extreme heat, including issuing heat warnings, increasing the number of staff at medical facilities during the hottest periods, establishing cooling centres where people can shelter and implementing protections for outdoor workers. El Nino is the period of time during which the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean heats up to at least 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) above average temperatures. It takes place every few years and is part of a natural climate cycle that alternates between a warm phase – El Nino – and a cool phase, known as La Nina.
During El Nino, the warmer ocean water can drive major changes in global weather patterns. Scientists and meteorologists classify El Nino as “super” when ocean surface temperatures reach or exceed 2C (3.6F) for a few months. The current El Nino reached 2.7C last month, and some forecasts say it could rise to 4C when it peaks somewhere between November and December.
The way El Nino develops depends a lot on “how the atmosphere and the ocean are behaving”, Akshay Deoras, senior research scientist at the University of Reading’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science & Department of Meteorology, told Al Jazeera. Early in the year generally, “you get winds blowing towards Indonesia and these winds pile up warm water over there. But sometimes, if the winds weaken or the wind pattern is reversed, then that’s when you get strong winds from the Indonesia side, and that leads to a lot of transport of warm water”, Deoras explained.
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