Galloway calls SPCX a $10 to $30 stock, implying up to 93% downside, and blames a 4% float and forced index buying for inflating the price. A 319 million-share unlock on Aug. 20 will test whether SPCX's price reflects genuine demand or scarcity manufactured by index mechanics. Wall Street rates SPCX a Moderate Buy near $229, backed by Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion and EBITDA up 191% year over year.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. NYU Stern professor and Prof G Markets host Scott Galloway told listeners this week that SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares are worth a fraction of where they trade today.
On an episode released around Monday, Aug. 17 to 18, 2026, he said the stock is "still crazy overvalued. I think this is a $10 to $30 stock." Measured against the Aug. 17 close of $146.23, that range implies roughly 79% to 93% downside. Shares then closed down 1.98% at $143.34 on Aug. 18.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) price and key stats: SpaceX priced at $135 per share on June 11, 2026 and began trading the next day on NASDAQ, implying a valuation of roughly $1.75 to $1.77 trillion at the IPO price. CNBC reported the stock closed up 19% at $161 on debut. Only about 4.2% of total equity floated publicly (555.6 million Class A shares), with retail earmarked 30% of the float, three times the mega-cap IPO norm.
The offering represented a 61% premium to the December 2025 tender-offer valuation of roughly $800 billion. SpaceX was fast-tracked into the NASDAQ-100 effective July 7, 2026, forcing QQQ-tracking funds to buy. Around June 23, 2026, less than two weeks after listing, the company priced a $25 billion bond offering that drew nearly $89 billion in orders, even though it already held $100.8 billion in cash.
Galloway's argument rests on three pillars. First, an artificially scarce public float of only 4% to 5% of shares, combined with forced index-fund buying from NASDAQ-100 inclusion, inflates the price through market mechanics rather than fundamentals. Second, he cast Elon Musk's talent in financial terms, saying "Musk will go down as the greatest engineer of our time, but as a financial engineer," framing the valuation as substantially a function of Musk's ability to generate investor enthusiasm.
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