The U.S. job market has been stuck in what economists call a low-hire, low fire mode for the past two years — and the September employment report is likely to be in line with this unusual trend. Here’s what to watch for in the pivotal jobs report, due Friday morning. The number of new U.S. jobs created in September is forecast to slow to 84,000 from a surprisingly strong gain of 162,000 in August.
Why humanoid robots are so hard to mass-produce Play video: Why humanoid robots are so hard to mass-produce Many economists suspect the hiring boost in August was exaggerated by school starting back up. Sometimes the government’s adjustments for seasonal swings in employment can produce questionable results that don’t prove to be sustainable. Don’t Short Yourself offers weekly money tips to help you earn it, stack it and grow it.
I would like to receive updates and special offers from Dow Jones and affiliates. I can unsubscribe at any time. Businesses don’t see a compelling need to hire, especially when they are coping with the residue of high tariffs, high gas prices and high inflation.
Still, another above-forecast increase in new jobs in September — say, over 100,000 — would be taken as a good sign by Wall Street that the labor market is gradually improving. Businesses often put off hiring until after the holiday. The jobless rate is expected to stay at an extremely low 4.1% in September.
The number of people applying for unemployment benefits is just a hair above a record low, as is the rate of layoffs. Buoyed by record profits and steady sales, most businesses see little need to reduce costs by cutting jobs. The economy also appears to have sped up, further reducing the need to resort to layoffs.
If the labor market were on fire, one of the first signs would be rising wages. Right now there’s no sign of that. Average hourly pay rose at a 3.1% rate in the 12 months that ended in August.
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