Azerbaijan can take a leading role in developing a regional sustainability program to address the challenges posed by declining water levels in the Caspian Sea, Ismail Serageldin, Co-Chair of the Board of Trustees of the Nizami Ganjavi International Center and former Vice President of the World Bank, said. Speaking at a panel on climate change challenges in the Caspian Sea during Baku Climate Action Week (BCAW 2026), Serageldin stressed the need to reassess how water resources are used, particularly in agriculture, as climate change alters conditions across the Caspian basin. He said there is now an opportunity to develop a sustainability program that anticipates future changes in the Caspian Sea.
The program should begin with an assessment of current water use and projected future needs. A significant share of Azerbaijan’s water resources is used in agriculture, making water efficiency closely linked to food security and the future of communities dependent on water resources. He also warned against viewing water availability solely in terms of quantity, arguing that water quality must be considered alongside supply.
When it comes to water availability, water is not only a question of quantity, but also of quality,” he said. Serageldin said the risks associated with changes in the Caspian Sea require targeted approaches for different areas, with the effectiveness of measures assessed through measurable results. Caspian changes extend beyond environment He noted that accelerating climate change is increasing uncertainty and intensifying the frequency and severity of natural phenomena, including droughts, extreme precipitation and floods, while placing additional pressure on available water resources.
Serageldin said the decline in the Caspian Sea’s level is no longer in doubt and warned that its consequences will extend far beyond the environment. These changes affect ecosystems and biodiversity. At the same time, the coastal strip, the communities living here, ports, the accessibility of the existing port infrastructure and the economic base of all Caspian communities are also affected by this process,” he said.
According to Serageldin, the scale of the challenge means that no individual country can address it alone. He called for closer cooperation among the five Caspian littoral states — Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan. He emphasized that Azerbaijan could play a leading role in establishing a coordinated regional response based on a joint program involving all five countries.
The social area also includes the involvement of local communities. Experience shows that this is the most effective approach to solving problems,” he added. Serageldin stressed that developments in the Caspian Sea should not be treated solely as an environmental concern, but as a long-term regional challenge requiring coordinated action among all five littoral states.
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