Under any normal circumstances Aryna Sabalenka would not have lost her third-round match at the Cincinnati Open last week. For all of her unforced errors, indecisiveness and the obvious tension surrounding her tennis, the world No 1 had led the unheralded Sára Bejlek 5-1 in the first set tie-break and then 4-1 in set two. She gave herself more than enough chances to close out a comfortable win.
Instead Sabalenka returns to New York trying to find a path through her greatest crisis since she first reached No 1 in the rankings more than three years ago. That straight-sets loss in Cincinnati extended a mediocre 17-7 record dating back to the beginning of April during which she has not reached a final. She has just one more chance to turn her fortunes around as she tries to claim her first grand slam title of the year at the US Open, the tournament she has won on the last two occasions.
Such is the competition at the top of women’s tennis, her rivals are congregating at her front door. Elena Rybakina begins this tournament sitting at No 1 in the live standings and in control of her own destiny. Sabalenka must win the title to have any hope of retaining the top ranking, but Rybakina will become the new No 1 regardless of all other results if she reaches the semi-finals.
Should either Coco Gauff or Jessica Pegula win the title and Rybakina fails to make the semi-finals, they would take top spot. This additional pressure could further add to Sabalenka’s woes, but perhaps, after 97 consecutive weeks as the undisputed best player in the world, this is exactly what she needs. There are other unanswered questions.
Rybakina’s physical condition is uncertain after she was forced to retire from her quarter-final against Iga Swiatek last week due to a leg injury. A year after she spent this lead-in week to the US Open changing her service action, and parts of her matches in tears, Gauff has rebuilt confidence in her serve and the 2023 champion produced some of her best tennis during her Cincinnati Open title run. Fresh from her own success in Toronto, the 2022 US Open champion Swiatek looks similarly rejuvenated after struggling badly with anxiety and nerves in many matches this year.
Pegula, a finalist in Cincinnati having defeated Swiatek, remains as consistent as ever and will put pressure on her rivals. The strength at the top of women’s game is reflected in the fact that every player inside the top 11 currently holds a WTA 1000 title or above. They have each shown that they are capable of winning the biggest tournaments in the world.
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