Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Senator Jon Husted by approximately three points in Ohio’s closing polling averages, although the latest individual surveys leave room for either candidate to win. ET on November 3, Silver Bulletin gave Brown a 3.0-point lead, 48.4 percent to 45.4 percent, while RealClearPolling placed the candidates at 48.5 percent and 45.7 percent, respectively, producing a gap of 2.8 points. David Niven, a political scientist who studies Ohio politics, told Newsweek that the central force in the Senate race was dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and with Republican control of state and federal government.
Today's special election will determine who completes the Senate term vacated by Vice President JD Vance and could play a decisive role in the battle for control of the chamber. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for outright control because Vance can break a 50-50 tie for Republicans. Whoever wins Ohio’s special U.S.
Senate election will serve the remainder of the term through January 2029. Brown’s performance in the 2024 Senate election explains why Democrats turned again to the former senator. His pro-labor identity and long focus on manufacturing give him a route to voters who no longer routinely support his party.
Husted brings a different form of familiarity. Before entering the Senate, he served as speaker of the Ohio House, secretary of state and lieutenant governor, winning several statewide elections along the way. Two final polls showed Brown ahead of Husted.
AtlasIntel surveyed 1,801 likely voters from October 28 to November 1 and found Brown leading 51 percent to 44 percent, with a 2-point margin of error. A New York Times/Siena College poll of 717 likely voters, conducted from October 26 to November 1, placed Brown ahead 49 percent to 44 percent, with a 4.2-point margin of error. The final Suffolk University/USA Today Network Ohio survey put Brown ahead by three points, 47 percent to 44 percent.
The survey conducted live telephone interviews with 500 likely voters from October 21 through 26, producing a sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 points. Four percent remained undecided. That result matched Suffolk’s September poll, suggesting stability rather than a late break.
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