Democrat Sherrod Brown’s narrow polling lead in the Ohio U.S. Senate race ahead of the November 3 midterm elections defies the state’s decadelong rightward shift, as Democrats hope to reverse that trend in the Buckeye State this year. Ohio was a premier battleground for much of the 2000s.
Former President Barack Obama won the state in both his 2008 and 2012 elections. But it has become increasingly conservative over recent cycles, backing President Donald Trump by 11 points in 2024. Brown, first elected to the Senate in 2006, also went down in 2024, losing his reelection bid to Republican Bernie Moreno.
Despite winning by comfortable margins in the past, as the state became more conservative, his personal brand was unable to withstand national headwinds. Two years later, Brown is hoping to score a comeback to make Ohio competitive once again. He is running to unseat Senator Jon Husted, a Republican appointed to fill the seat held by Vice President JD Vance in what has become one of the most hotly contested Senate battlegrounds.
Some indications are giving Democrats hope about winning this race. Brown has led in polls and fundraising, and Trump’s declining national approval rating has become a vulnerability for Republicans in close races. Still, a Brown victory would require him to defy the pattern that has seen Ohio become more conservative year after year.
Brown’s populist message could be what makes a difference in this year’s elections, Robert Alexander, professor of political science at Bowling Green State University, told Newsweek. Ohio is more of a “populist state than a partisan state,” and Brown “has a known populist brand that has played well with union households, rural voters, and independents.” “Economic populism, resentment toward billionaires and the tech class are messages that resonate with a lot of Ohioans,” Alexander added. Brown has a narrow polling lead about a month out from Election Day.
But the race is expected to be among the closest of the midterms, with forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifying the battle as a toss-up. The Democratic candidate held a 3.1-point lead in RealClearPolitics’ polling average as of Tuesday. If that holds, the change would mark nearly a 15-point leftward shift from the 2024 presidential race.
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