Shifting academic fates in early adolescence are marked by concurrent behavioural change rather than baseline profiles

Academic performance in childhood is highly stable in relative rank, yet the behavioural characteristics that accompany stable versus changing achievement standing remain unclear. We longitudinally tracked 16,946 students (grades 4–9; approximate grade-derived baseline ages 11.9 and 11.4 years) over 3–4 years in two contrasting Japanese cities, using achievement tests standardized annually within city and grade, and lifestyle–learning questionnaires. All trajectories therefore describe changes in students’ relative standing, not absolute learning growth.

Most students’ relative standing was stable and classified well from baseline questionnaire responses, a distinction that largely reflects baseline achievement level, with stable high standing accompanied by consistent daily routines, family support, and active classroom engagement. Approximately 9% of students rose or fell substantially; these shifts were weakly classified from Year 1 behavioural profiles but were marked by concurrent changes in study investment, motivation-related responses, and digital-media use. Behavioural information available through Year 3 added minimal prospective information about Year 4 standing beyond prior achievement (ΔR² = 0.002), indicating that these changes accompany, rather than forecast, shifts in relative standing.

Stable and changing academic standing were thus marked by distinct behavioural profiles—observable markers whose causal status and modifiability warrant prospective and experimental study. This research was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) under Moonshot Goal 9 (JPMJMS229C), the JST Mirai Program (JPMJMI21J6), and the JST FOREST Program (JPMJFR206N) awarded to C.H. We are deeply grateful to Dr.

Sakaki at Tohoku University for their invaluable feedback, and to the members of the Educational Committees in Cities A and B for their generous cooperation throughout the study. Their engagement was essential to the successful completion of this work. Graduate School of Information Sciences, Tohoku University, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan Chihiro Hosoda, Kenchi Hosokawa, Takuto Matsuhashi, Nanase Takahashi & Yu Hayashizaki Institute of Development, Aging and Cancer, Tohoku University, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan Chihiro Hosoda, Yutaka Matsuzaki & Ryuta Kawashima Graduate School of System Design and Management, Keio University, Yokohama, Japan The authors declare no competing interests.

All study procedures were approved by the Ethics Committee of Tohoku University (approval number: 24 A-03) and conducted following the Declaration of Helsinki and relevant institutional guidelines. The data derive from census-style municipal surveys administered by the Boards of Education as part of regular educational assessment; the Boards anonymized all records before provision, and the research team had no access to names, addresses, or school identifiers (cities are reported only as City A/City B). Because the study constitutes secondary analysis of pre-existing anonymized administrative data, the ethics committee approved a waiver of individual informed consent.

Data are governed by agreements with the Boards of Education and are available only through their formal request procedures. Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.