Socialists are changing the Democratic establishment. It won’t stop Hakeem Jeffries from being the next speaker

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries took time Monday to address a recent report that he met with President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner - a move that left some Democrats frustrated and calling for new leadership. The meeting angered some progressives partially because Kushner has been high on Democrats’ list of targets to investigate if they win back control of the House of Representatives. It’s also somewhat of an embarrassment for current House Speaker Mike Johnson since it’s all but an admission by the White House that Democrats are likely to win control of the House in November.

His continued support for Israel, in a time when many Democratic voters consider Israel’s onslaught in Gaza a genocide, has earned him additional criticism. And earlier this month, some left-wingers slammed Jeffries for not saying he does not support Medicare for All. All of this comes as socialist Democrats are winning House primaries, sometimes with the endorsement of the most prominent socialist in Jeffries’s home of New York City: Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

It doesn’t mean, however, that Jeffries is likely to lose his status as next House Speaker. But no matter how much left-wing Democrats harp about Jeffries, his ascension to the Speaker chair comes down to a simple answer: math. Unlike becoming Senate majority leader or House minority leader, the Speaker needs a clear majority on the House floor to earn the gavel.

One benefit Jeffries has is that he stands to become the first Black speaker of the House. That means that the Congressional Black Caucus will uniformly support him. With almost 60 members in the House of Representatives, they form a considerable bloc and they will likely see no defections.

That also means it takes out a number of would-be challengers to Jeffries, such as Rep. Joe Neguse of Colorado or Lauren Underwood of Illinois, since none would want to defect. The second problem is finding an alternative to Jeffries.

Matt Gaetz blocked Kevin McCarthy’s ascent to become speaker of the House for the first week of Congress in 2023, he and his band of bomb-throwers were unable to find an alternative. It took three weeks and three candidates failing before Republicans ultimately settled on Johnson, a largely anonymous backbencher with few enemies. Third, for Jeffries, it’s likely that many progressive Democrats would not want to face retribution.